Smaller than expected South American soybean crops likely mean more soybean export business for the U.S. in 2022. Reuters says Oil World, an oilseeds analyst, says major soybean export business will likely get pushed toward the U.S. in June and will continue from there.
Oil World estimates that the combined soybean harvests in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay will fall to approximately 186.3 million tons. That total is 7.4 million tons below the prior season and the lowest numbers in four years. Uncertainty about the final crop size in South America may mean their farmers will be more hesitant to sell into the market, keeping more beans in stock as a hedge against inflation.
“U.S. farmers will benefit as buyers in importing countries will likely shift their purchases to American soybeans from June or July onward,” says Oil World. “The biggest increase is likely to happen from September through December of 2022.”